Overview

This week focused mainly on BTC intraday structure and market profile levels. Posts tracked a liquidity sweep below EQL, re-acceptance into a value area, a possible 67k retest, and repeated tests of 69k as the key upside pivot. One follow-up noted that the 67k area was reached and produced an ~800-point rebound.

Secondary topics included on-chain BTC signals from Glassnode and Alphractal, plus several equity charts and risk comments on QQQ, MSFT, NVDA, and IBM ESPP.

Key Themes

• BTC level-based trading
  • Liquidity taken below EQL.
  • Attention on a weekend-built value area test.
  • A pullback toward 67k was flagged, then later marked as having bounced.
  • 69k was treated as the main acceptance/rejection level.

• Order flow / confirmation
  • Posts highlighted buy absorption on BTC and used CVD/strength screenshots to judge short-term reaction quality.

• On-chain caution
  • A Glassnode update said the rally toward $76k came with smaller wallets shifting toward distribution and no broad-based accumulation across wallet sizes.

• Equities and positioning
  • A QQQ chart showed a downside scenario toward 473.42.
  • A MSFT chart was paired with an ESPP buy price of 333.
  • NVDA was framed as a “panic” dip-buy question.
  • IBM ESPP was criticized as unfavorable for employees.

Notable Posts

• BTC: 67k retest idea played out
  • The channel noted BTC had been accepted back into a value area and said to watch a retest near 67k.
  • A later update said “给到了，反弹了800点”, i.e. the level was reached and BTC rebounded about 800 points.

• BTC: 69k remained the key pivot
  • One post said that if BTC could get accepted above 69k, conditions would improve materially.
  • A later post said 69k was rejected for the second time.

• Glassnode accumulation update
  • Shared view: the move toward $76k lacked broad accumulation support, with smaller wallet cohorts leaning toward distribution.

• Alphractal SOPR signal
  • The post highlighted LTH/STH SOPR Ratio < 0.38 as a level where Bitcoin cycle bottoms have tended to form, and suggested setting an alert there.

• Stocks / ESPP commentary
  • QQQ: downside projection of roughly -16.74% toward 473.42.
  • MSFT: chart aligned with an ESPP buy level at 333.
  • NVDA: dip framed as a possible panic-buy opportunity.
  • IBM: explicit warning to avoid its ESPP based on the shared employee discussion.

Watchlist

• BTC
  • 69k: acceptance vs. another rejection.
  • 67k: retest/reaction area.
  • Lower liquidity / EQL zone near 65,648.75 shown on charts.

• On-chain BTC
  • Whether accumulation broadens beyond current wallet behavior.
  • LTH/STH SOPR Ratio 0.38 alert level.

• Equities
  • QQQ 473.42 downside scenario from the shared chart.
  • MSFT 333 ESPP reference level.
  • NVDA support area shown near 164.51 on the chart.

• Corporate risk
  • IBM ESPP was specifically flagged as a product/risk to avoid.