Overview

The week focused on active trade management in U.S. tech/AI names, systematic support/resistance mapping, and a shift back toward crypto after BTC weakness. The channel logged trims/exits in $NOW, $ANET, $NBIS, $CRWV, a partial stop in $ZS, a small buy in $DUOL, and a later add to $AVGO. Alongside trade logs, the channel posted frequent AI infrastructure research notes and shared separate links for higher-frequency U.S. stock and crypto alerts.

Key Themes

• Systematic market maps:

Crypto and U.S. equity interval maps were posted on Jun 1–2. The author said the underlying logic is automated and runs every 30 minutes, while the main channel would keep lower-frequency posts for broader trend visibility.

• Trade trimming and rotation:

$NOW was sold premarket around 138; $ANET was mostly sold near prior highs; $CRWV was reduced and later fully exited at 124; $NBIS had already been fully sold; $ZS saw a 40% stop at 126 with 60% left; $AVGO was added after a sharp drop.

• Crypto focus increased:

The author said it was time to move some funds back into BTC, later posted that they were quietly buying BTC / ETH / BNB, while also warning that a BTC breakdown could target lower levels and reposting a headline that Bitcoin fell below $63,000.

• AI infrastructure/news flow:

Multiple posts tracked new or strengthened signals involving GNRC, STM, GFS/Sivers, Siemens/NVIDIA/Fluence/nVent, HPE, XOS, AEIS, AVGO, Autodesk/AWS, and SpaceX/Anthropic.

• Portfolio transparency:

A Jun 3 IBKR snapshot showed concentration in QQQ 22.10%, SMH 18.73%, AMAT 14.51%, with AI/semiconductor exposure at 52.84% and cash/class-cash at 36.67%.

Notable Posts

• Jun 1: Posted crypto maps for BTC, ETH, BNB, XMR, ZEC and U.S. equity maps for names including AVGO, NVDA, QQQ, SMH, AMD, AMZN, MSFT, TSM, GOOGL, META, NBIS.
• Jun 1: Logged key trade actions: $NOW sold at 138 premarket, $ANET trimmed near highs, $CRWV fully closed at 124, and $ZS managed after a stop.
• Jun 2: Shared a strong negative view on $MSTR versus holding BTC directly; also posted $MSFT 450 as an important level.
• Jun 2–3: Research posts highlighted HPE’s Cloud & AI/server/networking growth, AEIS’s 800V DC converter, AVGO’s AI semiconductor revenue update, and a SpaceX S-1/A describing Anthropic’s COLOSSUS compute contract.
• Jun 3: Said earlier exits in $CRWV (124) and $NOW (138) preserved profits, then added $AVGO after the selloff.

Watchlist

• Crypto: BTC, ETH, BNB — repeatedly discussed through interval maps, accumulation comments, and breakdown-risk posts.
• Core portfolio risk names: QQQ, SMH, AMAT, NVDA, GOOG — largest or meaningful published exposures.
• Level-sensitive names: MSFT (450 highlighted), ZS (remaining 60% position; 170 target), plus radar names HOOD, AMD, AMZN, GOOGL, NBIS, NTAP, SMCI, TSM.
• AI infrastructure/newsflow: AVGO, HPE, AEIS, GNRC, GFS, FLNC, NVT, XOS, plus ADSK/AMZN and SpaceX/Anthropic read-throughs.

Overview

本周频道主线很清晰：美股 AI/半导体趋势交易继续活跃，BTC/加密则持续偏谨慎。 实盘与复盘集中在 ASX、MU、AMAT、ARM、MSFT、PLTR、FUTU、OKB 等标的；同时连续发布了多次 美股日线摘要 和 BTC 结构更新。整体上，帖子反复强调：半导体/AI 链偏强，BTC 则更多是高 funding、OI 扩张不足、现货确认不够的震荡/回踩结构。另外，本周也补充了 MRVL 10-Q 供应侧信息，以及 OKTA / PATH / ASAN / ADSK 的 AI agent / workflow 财报线索。

Key Themes

• 趋势交易主导
  • 重点围绕 AI/半导体链展开，尤其是 ASX、MU、AMAT、ARM、MRVL、MSFT。
  • 对 ASX 的判断明确指向 AI advanced packaging / 封装链重估。
  • 多次提到“追踪趋势”“多高不算高”，但实际操作仍有分批减仓。

• 风险管理与分批落袋
  • OKB 这类高确定性 setup 才会用杠杆，且明确说“平时几乎不会碰”。
  • ASX 卖出 1/7 仓位来覆盖杠杆借款；AMAT 减 1/8；MU 追高仓卖出 1 股；PLTR 清仓；ARM 追了一波后已卖出。
  • 组合层面有帖子提到：某日 跑赢 QQQ 但跑输 SMH，后续又有一天 同时跑赢 QQQ 和 SMH。

• BTC 观点一周内基本偏谨慎
  • 多次重复的核心框架是：funding 偏热、OI 不扩、现货溢价分裂。
  • 期间出现明显洗多：一则更新给出 近 8h 多头爆仓 928.11 BTC vs 空头 32.56 BTC。
  • 后续虽然 funding 有所降温，但结论仍偏向 震荡/回踩修复，而不是“干净的趋势多”。

• 资金效率与资产偏好
  • 有明确帖子表示：币圈资金利用率太低、机会成本高，若下半年还有币圈牛市，会考虑把大部分资金撤回。
  • 同时也给出更简化的框架：普通人直接定投 QQQ 和 SMH，并贴出 SMH 前 20 大持仓。

Notable Posts

• OKB 高确定性交易
  • 帖子记录了埋伏的 OKB 现货使用 2 倍杠杆，随后大涨。
  • 后续明确补充：只有在“很确定”的位置才会加杠杆。

• ASX：AI 封装链重估 + 部分止盈
  • 一则帖子提到 ASX 盘前涨约 9.75%，随后补充长文，核心逻辑是：
    • ASE + WUS 的先进封装扩产合作；
    • 市场开始交易 TSMC 之外的 AI 供应链赢家；
    • 关键词包括 FOCoS / FCBGA / HPC / advanced packaging。
  • 随后记录：卖出 1/7 仓位 覆盖杠杆借款，其余继续持有。

• MU / AMAT / ARM / PLTR 的仓位动作
  • MU：先记录“804 追的也能赚钱”，后续又说卖掉 1 股，盈利 100 多美元。
  • AMAT：提到之前 426 建仓、摊薄到 400 以下，之后在 473 附近减掉 1/8。
  • ARM：提到在 310 附近追了一波，已经卖了。
  • PLTR：明确记录 清仓，成本约 135。

• BTC：从“高 funding 拥挤”到明显洗多
  • 多则更新中，BTC 被反复定义为：
    • funding 偏热（一度到 +89.48 bps）；
    • OI 变化不大或回落；
    • 现货溢价分裂、未广泛确认。
  • 05-28/05-29 的多周期更新给出多个关键位，并把结构定性为 震荡/回踩。

• MRVL 与企业软件 AI 线索
  • MRVL 10-Q 帖子指出：新增 $2.7568B foundry/test/assembly 无条件采购承诺，以及 $870M deposits 对应 wafer/substrate capacity agreements。
  • 同日还有一则盘后财报观察，点名：
    • OKTA：FY27 Q1 收入 $765M，同比 +11%
    • PATH：收入 $418M，同比 +17%
    • ASAN：收入 $205.1M，同比 +9.5%，并收购 StackAI
    • ADSK：收入 $1.934B，同比 +18%，并收购 MaintainX

Watchlist

• BTC
  • 继续观察：funding 是否回落、OI 是否恢复扩张、现货溢价是否转为广泛正值。
  • 本周帖子给出的关键位包括：
    • 近端支撑：73,085 / 73,448 / 73,189
    • 收复位/压力：74,270 / 77,655
    • 更重要日线支撑：70,380

• MSFT
  • 本周多次提到 430 一带压力。
  • 后续帖子补充：若收盘站稳 433 上方，“基本上问题不大”；下一道压力看 450。

• MRVL
  • 后续观察点已在帖子中写明：是否会披露更具体的 AI bookings、客户集中度、foundry/substrate/test 供应链细节。

• 半导体关键位雷达
  • 05-28 的雷达帖点名了多只接近关键位的标的：
    • AVGO：426.7 / 428.0 附近压力
    • MRVL：205.4 附近压力
    • SMH：601.7 / 604.7 附近压力
    • MSFT：423.6 支撑、428.9 压力
    • TSM：426.8 / 427.6 压力
    • NVDA：215.2 压力
    • COIN：181.5 支撑

• 企业软件中的 AI agent / workflow 线
  • 帖子明确建议重点跟踪：OKTA、PATH、ASAN、ADSK。

Overview

• The week’s posts focused on BTC/ETH derivatives, AI/semi equities, and a smaller set of HK/China names.
• BTC commentary stayed consistent: funding was hot early, but spot confirmation stayed split. Reported BTC funding moved from +57.78 bps to +48.09 bps, then +79.83 bps, later +40.03 bps, and finally -8.20 bps; OI stayed roughly $7.77B–$8.06B and spot premiums remained around 0.00% with venue divergence.
• Trade-log posts showed active position management: an ETHUSDT long screenshot at +12.23%, repeated CRWV futures trades, and exits in HYPE, ARM, and NBIS.
• Daily US stock summaries (data dates 2026-05-15, 05-18, 05-19, 05-20, 05-21) repeatedly highlighted semi/AI-adjacent names and volume leaders such as MRVL, NVDA, ARM, VRT, QQQI, QQQ, IBKR, COIN.

Key Themes

• BTC still looked derivatives-led, not spot-led. Multiple posts warned that upside was being driven more by funding/squeeze dynamics than by broad spot confirmation.
• Semi/AI infrastructure remained a core focus. The channel tracked both trading names and supply-chain signals, including ADI’s $1.5B acquisition of Empower Semiconductor and NVDA 10-Q supply/capacity commitments rising from $95.2B to $119B.
• Fast trade execution and profit-taking. The log showed entries, trims, exits, and restarts rather than long-form conviction calls, with explicit notes on avoiding FOMO.
• Selective new ideas outside US megacap tech. Posts mentioned Tencent around HKD 410, a small FUTU starter, plus disclosed cost/entry areas for ASX, ANET, and CEG.

Notable Posts

• ETH / BTC early-week crypto post: an ETHUSDT perpetual long screenshot showed +12.23% on 10x leverage, with visible entry at 2,123.27 and current price 2,149.18. A separate comment said the day’s washout was mainly in semiconductors, while BTC was strong.
• CRWV became the most actively traded ticker in the log:
  • described as a trade with relatively high certainty;
  • one screenshot showed CRWV LONG 3x +12.8% (95.876 → 99.958);
  • later, the author said CRWV futures were closed at 101;
  • another screenshot showed CRWV LONG 2x +10.6% (101.95 → 107.36);
  • the position was described as something to trade repeatedly around key levels.
• Exits logged:
  • HYPE: position closed; screenshot showed avg buy 46.34 / avg sell 50.70.
  • ARM: fully closed with stated average cost “217多”; a later post said it was sold too early.
  • NBIS: fully closed with stated cost 194.94.
• AI infrastructure/supply-chain posts:
  • ADI / Empower Semiconductor: official-signal post framed the deal around AI power delivery / grid-to-core / point-of-load bottlenecks.
  • NVDA 10-Q: manufacturing/supply/capacity commitments rose to $119B; cloud-service commitments rose to $30B.
• Other disclosed levels/positions:
  • Tencent: “around 410” was flagged as a level to consider.
  • ASX: stated cost 29.9.
  • FUTU: small starter position opened.
  • ANET: position built in the 141–138 area.
  • CEG: bought in the 270s.

Watchlist

• BTC — key confirmation points repeatedly cited were: OI expansion and broadly positive spot premiums across venues.
• CRWV — remained an actively traded futures name around key levels.
• AI/semi complex — names and signals discussed included NVDA, ADI, ARM, NBIS, MRVL, VRT, ASX, ANET.
• HK/China / broker platforms — Tencent and FUTU.
• Power / infrastructure — CEG.

Overview

• The week mixed recurring US market summary posts with several trade/position updates.
• In the US stock summaries, `MU` stayed the clearest repeat strength name (`高位 + 高量` on multiple days), while semis and related names such as `SMH`, `ASML`, `AMD`, `LRCX`, `AMAT`, `WDC`, `SNPS`, `CDNS`, and `VRT` appeared often in positive price-extreme lists.
• `ANET` repeatedly showed up on the weak side early in the week (`低位 + 高量` / negative price extremes).
• `BTC` commentary focused on derivatives overheating, partial cooling, and weak spot confirmation. Funding moved from `+25.92 bps` to `+54.37 bps` before cooling back to `+29.28 bps`; OI ranged from about `$7.77B` to `$8.56B`, then eased to `$8.31B`.
• Trade logs included a `CRCL` short from setup to exit, a partial `BNB` take-profit, and closed/updated positions in `HYPE`, `CBRS`, and `ETH`.

Key Themes

• Semis stayed prominent: `MU` was repeatedly flagged as strong, and the semi complex dominated the positive outlier lists across the daily summaries.
• BTC was driven more by derivatives than broad spot confirmation: funding and OI rose meaningfully midweek, while average spot premium stayed near `0.00%` and remained split across exchanges.
• Risk management was emphasized: posts warned against “catching falling knives,” noted that elevated funding reduced the appeal of chasing longs, and showed profit-taking rather than overstaying trades.
• IPO / pre-IPO / synthetic exposure showed up in commentary: an `OpenAI` “preOAI” screenshot was shared, and `CBRS` was discussed as having traded on Hyperliquid before its IPO.

Notable Posts

• BTC market structure posts
  • A chart linked morning `BTC` spot selling/absorption with long liquidations, describing the effect as forced selling into spot.
  • Another post said `BTC 79.1k` “cannot really break” without risking a deeper pullback.
  • Follow-up updates tracked funding/OI/spot-premium changes day by day as the market first reheated, then cooled.

• `CRCL` short sequence
  • A `Hyperliquid` screenshot showed a `2x` `CRCL` short in profit.
  • The position was later closed; the caption said the short made “`5%+`” and that there was no need to get greedy.
  • A later annotated chart explained the `CRCL` short setup.

• `BNB` partial take-profit
  • A post said some `BNB` bought at `615` was sold after reaching a stage target; the attached chart showed price around `682.8`.

• Other position updates
  • `HYPE` was closed; the screenshot showed `+8.0%`.
  • `CBRS` was mentioned twice: first as a missed earlier futures listing on Hyperliquid, then with a `2x` long screenshot showing `+9.1%`.
  • An `ETH` long close screenshot showed `+3.84%` on `4x`.

• Sizing / comparison note
  • One post compared `NBIS (+18.21%)` and `CRWV (+3.81%)` and said equal dollar sizing would be preferred next time.

Watchlist

• `BTC` — funding, OI, and cross-exchange spot premium; `79.1k` was explicitly identified as an important level.
• `MU` / semis — `MU`, `SMH`, `ASML`, `AMD`, `LRCX`, `AMAT`, `WDC`, `SNPS`, `CDNS`, `VRT` kept recurring in strong daily-summary readings.
• `ANET` — repeatedly appeared on the weak side with elevated volume.
• `CRCL` — active short setup this week and also appeared in hot-volume mentions.
• `CRWV`, `GS`, `COHR`, `LITE`, `NBIS`, `CBRS` — names repeatedly showing up in volume lists, comparison posts, or trade commentary.

Overview

• The week centered on U.S. equities + BTC, with a strong focus on chart structure, relative extremes, and execution discipline.
• In the channel’s stock snapshot, SIMO, GOOGL, and STX stood out as high-price + high-volume names. Other upside extreme readings included SNDK (1.90), STX (1.78), MU (1.55), while downside extremes included NBIS (-1.92), ASML (-1.84), CRCL (-1.61), LRCX (-2.22).
• BTC commentary shifted from negative-funding short squeeze to constructive but fragile: funding improved, OI rose to about $8.61B (+5.70% 24h), shorts were squeezed more than longs, but spot confirmation remained mixed across exchanges.

Key Themes

• Extremes need market structure confirmation.

A post explicitly said the relative-position extreme metric is not a standalone signal and should be combined with market structure. It singled out NBIS and CRCL as clearer setups, while LRCX and ASML were described as less certain.

• Momentum leadership and missed-move frustration.

The channel highlighted setups or strong moves in ORCL, MU, and SNDK, while also noting frustration at not getting entries or exiting too early.

• BTC patience over chasing.

BTC was framed as a market where opportunities come from waiting, especially with leverage building faster than broad spot confirmation.

• Defense/autonomous systems theme.

AVAV was highlighted after the company posted that the U.S. Army selected Switchblade 400 for the LASSO program (dated 2026-05-04), reinforcing the defense/autonomy procurement theme.

Notable Posts

• Daily U.S. stock summary
  • High price + high volume: SIMO, GOOGL, STX
  • Hottest volume: STX 4.62, SIMO 4.33, GOOGL 3.80, TER 3.58, WDC 2.79
  • Biggest positive extreme readings: SIMO 2.22, GOOGL 2.06
  • Negative extreme readings: NBIS -1.92, ASML -1.84, CRCL -1.61, LRCX -2.22

• NBIS / CRCL follow-through
  • After being identified as clearer setups, follow-up screenshots showed:
    • NBIS: $169.21, +9.53%
    • CRCL: $109.64, +9.97%

• BTC market structure / derivatives read
  • Current funding: -1.58 bps
  • Predicted funding: -10.87 bps
  • OI: ~$8.61B
  • 8h liquidations: longs 28.44 BTC vs shorts 200.07 BTC
  • Spot premia were mixed: Kraken +0.03%, Binance/Bitstamp +0.00%, Coinbase -0.03%, Gemini -0.01%

• Trading performance share
  • A screenshot showed realized P/L of $548.22 across 36 trades for Apr 28, 2026 – May 04, 2026.

• Chart callouts
  • ORCL was posted as a setup.
  • Later commentary said ORCL was sold too early, while MU and SNDK were cited as missed or hard-to-enter runners.

Watchlist

• BTC — watch whether rising OI gets broader spot confirmation; the post warned that more leverage without spot participation could make the move fragile.
• AVAV — watch for contract value, delivery pace, and production expansion; related names explicitly mentioned were KTOS, RTX, LHX.
• NBIS, CRCL — previously identified as the clearer relative-extreme setups and already showed strong follow-through in posted screenshots.
• ASML, LRCX — still referenced, but the channel said these were less certain.
• SIMO, GOOGL, STX, MU, SNDK, ORCL — names repeatedly highlighted through the week via volume, relative-strength, or chart-based posts.

Overview

• Covered period: 2026-04-27 to 2026-05-03 UTC.
• The week was split between frequent BTC structure/derivatives updates and recurring “美股日线摘要” posts.
• BTC stayed the main focus: funding was negative for most of the week, OI moved roughly from $7.27B to $8.08B, and spot premium was repeatedly described as tight/mixed rather than broadly confirmed.
• In U.S. equities, the daily screens were dominated by “高位 + 高量” names; the other three quadrants were almost always empty. Recurrent tickers included ARM, AMD, GEV, TSM, SIMO, STX, GOOGL, NVDA, MU, SMH, TER, VRT.

Key Themes

• BTC around EQH / sweeps: multiple chart posts focused on equal highs, highs sweeps, selling into bids, and absorption of market sells.
• Derivatives vs spot: repeated contrast between negative funding / changing OI and still-split spot premiums across exchanges.
• AI infra relationship-map update: two new “high-confidence official” links were added:
  • META → AVGO / MTIA custom ASIC
  • MU → HBM4 → NVDA
• Process and positioning: the channel also shared technical-analysis/process commentary, a thematic long-term stock pool, and a few example trades.

Notable Posts

• BTC regime notes ranged from “extreme negative funding + longs washed out” early in the week

(funding -86.59 bps, predicted -96.49 bps) to near-neutral/slightly negative funding with larger OI later (funding -0.49 bps, OI about $8.01B). The repeated takeaway was: stronger/repairing, but still fragile because spot confirmation stayed narrow.

• BTC chart callouts included:
  • “EQH继续压制”
  • “selling into the bids”
  • “classic”
  • a short entered after a highs sweep
  • a later note that EQH had still not been fully cleared, with ~79,500 as the area of interest

(one attached chart showed EQH near 79,431.83).

• Personal trade posts:
  • BTCUSDC perpetual: buy, 3x, +3.42%, entry 75,270.8, average exit 76,160.7
  • MSFT intraday: 399 buy, 409 sell
• Daily stock-summary standouts:
  • Early week: ARM, GEV
  • Midweek: ARM, AMD, SMH, NVDA
  • Later week: SIMO, STX, GOOGL
  • Later negative extremes included LITE, NBIS, ASML, CRCL, LRCX
• NBIS was separately noted for a roughly 10% move from the prior day’s low into premarket.

Watchlist

• BTC
  • Whether EQH around 79,431.83 / ~79,500 gets swept
  • Whether spot premium broadens across venues
  • Whether higher OI is confirmed by spot rather than mainly squeeze dynamics
• Repeated names from the week’s daily screens
  • ARM, AMD, GEV, TSM, MU, SMH, NVDA, SIMO, STX, GOOGL, VRT, TER
• AI infra follow-up from the map update
  • AVGO / Meta project revenue timing
  • MU HBM4 capacity, share, and margin detail
• Pinned long-term stock pool / core names
  • 电力/电网： ETN, GEV, VRT, PWR, CEG, VST
  • 网络安全： PANW, CRWD, ZS, NET, CYBR
  • 医疗效率： LLY, NVO, ISRG, TMO, DHR, ABT
  • 国防/太空： RTX, LMT, NOC, PLTR, AVAV, RKLB
  • 自动化： ROK, EMR, TER, SYM, CGNX
  • 水资源： XYL, ECL, WTS, AWK

# Weekly Digest (2026-04-20 → 2026-04-27 UTC)

Overview

• U.S. equity scans were selective this week. Most daily summaries showed no formal trigger across the four structure buckets, with HOOD and later UNH the only names explicitly tagged “高位 + 高量”.
• BTC discussion focused on derivatives positioning: funding moved from deeply negative short crowding, to a positive-funding / OI-expansion phase, then back through deleveraging, and later toward near-neutral. Across the updates, spot confirmation stayed mixed.
• The week also included trade/process notes, an ETH “selling absorption” chart, a pre-earnings exit on NOW, and two posts mapping the AI infrastructure stack.

Key Themes

• Equities: Repeated near-trigger names included QQQ, VOO, ANET, NVDA, and on some days META, AVGO, GOOGL. Frequent price/volume standouts included COIN, MSFT, ORCL, HOOD, AMD, NFLX, SCHW, TSM, VRT, IBKR, UNH.
• BTC structure: Funding prints ranged from about -78.65 bps to +35.60 bps, while OI alternated between contraction, expansion, and stabilization. The recurring framing was squeeze / deleveraging-driven rather than clean spot-led trend confirmation.
• Spot vs derivatives: Exchange premiums repeatedly stayed split: some venues were slightly positive while others were flat to negative. The consistent takeaway was “mixed/diverging” spot breadth.
• Process and sector work: One post shared a preferred setup stack: VP + VWAP + key pivot, then MSB + order book imbalance, then price/volume z-score, then optional order flow. Another stressed risk control over certainty. AI posts ranked bottlenecks around GPU, HBM, advanced packaging, networking, and power/cooling.

Notable Posts

• ETH chart: An annotated image was posted with the caption `$ETH selling absorption`.
• NOW trade note: A post said “$NOW sold before earnings call, right choice :)” with an image showing NOW 103.19 and an after-hours marker at 88.00.
• AI bottleneck ranking: The highest current bottlenecks were listed as GPU/accelerators, HBM, advanced packaging, data-center networking, and power/cooling.
• AI baseline: One post summarized the chain as cloud AI capex → NVDA/accelerators → TSM manufacturing + HBM + networking/power/storage, and referenced Blackwell adopters, TSMC 4NP, AWS Trainium, Google TPU, and the MSFT–CEG 20-year ~835MW PPA.

Watchlist

• Equities: HOOD, UNH, QQQ, VOO, ANET, NVDA, AMD, COIN, VRT, NFLX
• BTC: Whether funding and OI expand again, and whether spot premiums turn broadly positive across venues instead of staying split
• AI infrastructure: NVDA, AMD, TSM, AVGO, MRVL, SNPS, CDNS, MU, ANET, VRT, plus hyperscalers MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL, CRWV

# Trading log — Weekly Digest (2026-04-13 to 2026-04-20 UTC)

Overview

• The week focused on BTC market structure / derivatives and U.S. equity scan updates.
• On the U.S. stock side, both daily summaries reported no formal triggers in the four price/volume structures, though many large-cap names stayed close to high price + low volume conditions.
• On BTC, the tone shifted from bearish crowding cooling off early in the week to bullish crowding with OI expansion and a short squeeze later in the week.
• Trade and portfolio updates centered on BTC, BNB, CRCL, ORCL, HOOD, and MSFT.

Key Themes

• U.S. equity scans
  • Repeatedly listed near high price + low volume: QQQ, VOO, AMD, NVDA, IBKR, GOOGL, NFLX, QQQI.
  • Later additions in that bucket included AXP, TSM, VRT, META.
  • High relative-volume names included PLTR, CRWV, ORCL, NBIS, GS.
  • PLTR was specifically noted as close to a low price + high volume structure.

• BTC derivatives regime change
  • Early-week read: funding had recovered to -1.8 bps, predicted funding stayed negative (-15.4 bps), and OI was down 0.5%; the interpretation was more of a post-crowding repair than a clean continuation lower.
  • Later-week read: funding flipped to +27.3 bps, predicted funding to +27.2 bps, and OI rose 6.1%; short liquidations (51.8M) far exceeded long liquidations (4.3M), pointing to a squeeze-driven move.

• Order-flow interpretation
  • Several posts emphasized that CVD alone does not show the full story.
  • Side-specific volume was used to argue that selling pressure was being absorbed, rather than price rising because buyers were strongly aggressive.
  • One spike was framed as short stop-outs / forced buying rather than purely fresh long chasing.

• Trade management
  • BTC short exposure was repeatedly described as light size / low leverage.
  • BNB was traded tactically while most of the position was described as long-term hold.

Notable Posts

• A QQQ worst-case chart suggested a possible replay of the prior year’s pattern.
• BTC: a short-entry zone up to 72,500 was discussed; later, the EQH sweep filled 72,500, and a subsequent post marked 76k LQG as achieved.
• BNB: bought at 594, sold at 604.
• CRCL and ORCL were highlighted as the portfolio’s biggest daily winners.
• ORCL was later shown at 155.62 in regular trading and 166.35 after hours.
• CRCL was later sold near the stated target area.
• HOOD: about 1/10 of the position was sold, with remaining targets listed at 92 and 101.
• MSFT ESPP: average cost 333.15; plan stated to sell half at 410.

Watchlist

• BTC: post-squeeze conditions, hot funding, and the completed 76k liquidity grab; later posts turned more cautious on near-term risk.
• HOOD: 92, then 101.
• MSFT: 410 for selling half of ESPP shares.
• Repeated scan names: QQQ, VOO, AMD, NVDA, IBKR, GOOGL, NFLX, QQQI.
• High-volume names to monitor: CRWV, PLTR, ORCL, NBIS.

Overview

• BTC was the clear focus of the week. Early posts described a short squeeze that quickly turned into crowded longs as price pushed back above 69k and then 70k, while perpetual funding rose from roughly +19-38 bps to +55-71 bps and OI expanded toward roughly $6.6B.
• Midweek, the BTC derivatives structure reset sharply: funding dropped from +70.73 bps to near flat and briefly negative, predicted funding turned negative in some reads, OI fell back toward roughly $6.25B-$6.30B, and long liquidations became dominant.
• Later BTC posts showed another push into the 71.6k-71.9k area, but the read stayed cautious because funding reheated to around +60.2 bps while OI only rose modestly, suggesting squeeze/overheat risk rather than a clean trend expansion.
• Outside BTC, the channel logged:
  • AAVEUSD CM perpetual long: +7.34%
  • BTCUSDC perpetual short: +3.05%
  • UNH: bought 282, sold 305
  • ANET revisit: “141 now”
  • QQQ: caution to trim some exposure into strength

Key Themes

• BTC perp structure led the analysis. Most posts centered on the interaction between funding, OI, liquidations, and price acceptance.
• Regime changes were the main story:

short squeeze → crowded longs → deleveraging/reset → renewed squeeze risk

• Several posts highlighted a split between derivatives heat and broader sentiment, with Fear & Greed at 11-13 (Extreme Fear) even as perpetual funding became very elevated.
• A Glassnode summary added a larger structural caution:
  • overhead supply concentrated in the 80k-126k zone
  • Total Supply in Loss ~8.4M BTC
  • LTH Realized Loss ~\$200M/day
  • a cooler <\$25M/day level was cited as a better bottoming threshold
• Process/tooling also mattered this week: a new aggregate spot CVD view was added to compare multi-exchange flow vs Binance-only flow, with the claim that aggregate data better exposed a local top/absorption pattern.

Notable Posts

• BTC above 69k acceptance: one chart post said BTC finally looked “accepted” above 69k, followed soon after by a note that it had already pushed through 70k.
• Glassnode: “No Catalyst, No Range Break”

The post argued the key constraint was not just weak demand, but heavy overhead supply, with concrete on-chain markers for whether bottoming/re-accumulation is actually progressing.

• AAVE trade screenshot (2026-04-07 21:09:44):

AAVEUSD CM perpetual, buy, 2x, +7.34% Open: 86.519 | Avg close: 89.814

• CVD tool update + BTC short setup:

A post introduced an aggregate CVD mode on cvdd.kljsandjb.me, showing side-by-side charts of aggregate flow vs Binance-only flow and arguing the aggregate view better showed buyer absorption after a three-drive pattern.

• BTC short screenshot (2026-04-08 15:38:12):

BTCUSDC perpetual, short, 3x, +3.05% Entry: 71,775.4 | Latest: 71,089.4

• Other trade/risk notes:
  • UNH: “282 bought, 305 sold”
  • ANET: revisited with “141 now” and a note that news was only the catalyst, while technicals were the key
  • QQQ: warning not to get too greedy at a key area and to consider raising some cash

Watchlist

• BTC funding/OI combo: whether funding can cool from elevated levels without price losing key support, or whether another high-funding crowded-long setup forms.
• BTC levels repeatedly referenced in posts:

68.2k-68.3k, 69k-70.3k, and the higher 71k-72.5k area.

• Liquidation bias: whether the next move is led by long flushes or another short squeeze.
• Spot absorption / CVD: especially whether aggregate spot CVD continues to show absorption or divergence that Binance-only flow misses.
• Structural BTC confirmation: whether stronger spot demand appears alongside improvement in the Glassnode markers, rather than relying only on perp-driven rallies.
• Equity names mentioned: follow-through in ANET, and whether QQQ holds up after the call to de-risk into strength.

Overview

This week focused mainly on BTC intraday structure and market profile levels. Posts tracked a liquidity sweep below EQL, re-acceptance into a value area, a possible 67k retest, and repeated tests of 69k as the key upside pivot. One follow-up noted that the 67k area was reached and produced an ~800-point rebound.

Secondary topics included on-chain BTC signals from Glassnode and Alphractal, plus several equity charts and risk comments on QQQ, MSFT, NVDA, and IBM ESPP.

Key Themes

• BTC level-based trading
  • Liquidity taken below EQL.
  • Attention on a weekend-built value area test.
  • A pullback toward 67k was flagged, then later marked as having bounced.
  • 69k was treated as the main acceptance/rejection level.

• Order flow / confirmation
  • Posts highlighted buy absorption on BTC and used CVD/strength screenshots to judge short-term reaction quality.

• On-chain caution
  • A Glassnode update said the rally toward $76k came with smaller wallets shifting toward distribution and no broad-based accumulation across wallet sizes.

• Equities and positioning
  • A QQQ chart showed a downside scenario toward 473.42.
  • A MSFT chart was paired with an ESPP buy price of 333.
  • NVDA was framed as a “panic” dip-buy question.
  • IBM ESPP was criticized as unfavorable for employees.

Notable Posts

• BTC: 67k retest idea played out
  • The channel noted BTC had been accepted back into a value area and said to watch a retest near 67k.
  • A later update said “给到了，反弹了800点”, i.e. the level was reached and BTC rebounded about 800 points.

• BTC: 69k remained the key pivot
  • One post said that if BTC could get accepted above 69k, conditions would improve materially.
  • A later post said 69k was rejected for the second time.

• Glassnode accumulation update
  • Shared view: the move toward $76k lacked broad accumulation support, with smaller wallet cohorts leaning toward distribution.

• Alphractal SOPR signal
  • The post highlighted LTH/STH SOPR Ratio < 0.38 as a level where Bitcoin cycle bottoms have tended to form, and suggested setting an alert there.

• Stocks / ESPP commentary
  • QQQ: downside projection of roughly -16.74% toward 473.42.
  • MSFT: chart aligned with an ESPP buy level at 333.
  • NVDA: dip framed as a possible panic-buy opportunity.
  • IBM: explicit warning to avoid its ESPP based on the shared employee discussion.

Watchlist

• BTC
  • 69k: acceptance vs. another rejection.
  • 67k: retest/reaction area.
  • Lower liquidity / EQL zone near 65,648.75 shown on charts.

• On-chain BTC
  • Whether accumulation broadens beyond current wallet behavior.
  • LTH/STH SOPR Ratio 0.38 alert level.

• Equities
  • QQQ 473.42 downside scenario from the shared chart.
  • MSFT 333 ESPP reference level.
  • NVDA support area shown near 164.51 on the chart.

• Corporate risk
  • IBM ESPP was specifically flagged as a product/risk to avoid.

Overview

In the supplied posts for 2026-03-23 to 2026-03-30, the channel mixed live BTC trade notes, order-flow education, and risk-off US equity commentary. BTC discussion centered on the ~69k area, absorption/LVN reclaim setups, and one disclosed spot BTC buy. On equities, posts highlighted elevated fear / VIX, a sharp Friday liquidation tone, and a separate warning that QQQ could still drop ~15% from then-current levels. Several historical OrderFlows.com charts were shared to illustrate liquidity grabs, stop runs, buying imbalances, and accumulation.

Key Themes

• BTC around ~69k: Multiple charts treated ~69k as an important level; the view stayed constructive if a downside deviation was recovered.
• Absorption and spot buying: The channel called out BTC USDT margin absorption and spot-market TWAP buying, then showed a BTC/USDC spot purchase at 68,358.03.
• Liquidity and stops: Posts emphasized that stops often sit above prior highs / below prior lows, and that price seeks liquidity. One post explicitly paired this with the idea that futures drive price, while spot drives value.
• Order-flow education: Historical examples showed previous-day-low sweeps, aggressive buyers stepping in, buying imbalances, institutional accumulation, and limited selling interest.
• Equity risk sentiment: Friday was described as a liquidation / “Black Friday” session. A VIX chart was framed as showing historically tradable fear, but the poster also stressed cash preservation and downside risk in QQQ.
• Ongoing study: Two books were shared for exploring markets through a signal-processing / cycle-analysis lens: *Cycle Analytics for Traders* and *Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures*.

Notable Posts

• Mar 26: `$BTC USDT margin absorption, spot market TWAP buying` was posted, followed by a BTC/USDC spot buy screenshot at 68,358.03.
• Mar 26: BTC charts argued that ~69k still mattered, with added LVN break-and-reclaim confluence.
• Mar 27 (intraday): After a break of the range low, the poster said the expected reaction did not appear yet, so they were not taking a long; later the same area was marked as looking more like absorption than divergence.
• Mar 27: A VIX/fear chart was posted with the view that this kind of fear in US stocks has historically offered opportunity, but another post the same day warned of a possible ~15% QQQ drop in a worst-case scenario and urged holding enough cash.
• Mar 27 & Mar 29: Historical OrderFlows.com examples covered testing the previous day’s low, institutional buying / accumulation, and locating longs through buying imbalances with little selling interest.
• Mar 26: A sentiment post contrasted Jim Cramer’s positive Meta comment with a sharp Meta selloff (“Yesterday vs Today”).

Watchlist

• BTC ~69k zone: whether downside deviations continue to be reclaimed.
• BTC flow quality: whether the noted absorption and spot TWAP buying continue.
• Liquidity sweeps: reactions after breaks of local highs/lows or range boundaries, especially whether there is confirming absorption before taking longs.
• US equities / QQQ: whether elevated fear becomes a buyable setup or the warned downside scenario extends.

Overview

Based on the supplied posts and media from 2026-03-17 to 2026-03-22 UTC, the week focused mostly on BTC order-flow / microstructure analysis, with a noticeable emphasis on caution and reduced leverage. Early posts highlighted short setups using supply/absorption logic, while later BTC posts showed spot buying around \$71,000 and a view that some levels were no longer attractive for fresh shorts. Outside crypto, the channel also tracked QQQ and CRCL, and closed the week by sharing a YouTube link and a PDF on volume profile / market profile / order flow.

Key Themes

• BTC microstructure trading
  • Repeated use of supply zones, absorption, CVD, distance, heatmaps, and volume-by-side charts.
  • One post also tested FFT (Fast Fourier Transform) as an analytical tool.

• Risk management
  • Multiple posts explicitly avoided or reduced leverage, preferring spot entries.
  • One post noted that many good opportunities happen overnight in Europe, reducing interest in leveraged/futures trading.

• Tactical dip buying
  • BTC: spot bought around \$71,000.
  • QQQ: an EQL (equal lows) break was cited as fitting the author’s entry logic; a later follow-up said the buy looked like “catching a falling knife,” with more bids left at 575.

• Watch on broader indicators
  • Shared Alphractal charts on Bitcoin Realized Cap Impulse, highlighting that the metric was approaching a critical zero-line zone.

• Learning resources
  • A YouTube video and a PDF titled *Volume Profile, Market Profile, Order Flow Next Generation of Daytrading* were posted.

Notable Posts

• Mar 17: BTC short setup framework shared:

1. find supply, 2. confirm absorption, 3. use distance as strength confirmation, 4. enter short.

• Mar 18: BTC stance turned more constructive:
  • “At this level can’t stay bearish; need to try buying more.”
  • “Bought some spot around 71000, not touching leverage for now.”

• Mar 18: A BTC post commented that a large coin-margined trader opened a short hedge at the low and got trapped.

• Mar 19: QQQ post said the break below EQL matched entry logic; the next day’s follow-up said the trade looked like a falling knife, with more resting orders at 575.

• Mar 19: CRCL was shown testing IPO-anchored VWAP.

• Mar 19: Alphractal’s Bitcoin Realized Cap Impulse charts were shared, noting:
  • long-term negative readings have historically aligned with the mid-phase of aggressive bear markets,
  • short-term readings can act as dynamic support/resistance around zero,
  • current conditions were described as approaching a critical zone.

• Mar 21-22: External resources posted:
  • a YouTube link
  • a PDF on volume/profile/order-flow trading.

Watchlist

• BTC around \$71,000
  • This was the main cited spot-buy area and the point where bearishness was reduced.

• BTC Realized Cap Impulse near zero
  • The posted Alphractal charts framed this as a key area to monitor.

• QQQ
  • Follow-through after the EQL sweep/break setup, with additional bids mentioned at 575.

• CRCL
  • Reaction around the IPO-anchored VWAP test.

• Execution style
  • Whether upcoming setups continue to be taken mainly in spot rather than leverage/futures.